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Near-Term Warming Management
Grantee Project

Near-term Warming Management, Beyond the Single Basket Mindset

Research on metric design to support management of both near-term and long-term warming in parallel

Gabrielle Dreyfus

November 2022

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December 2024

Project Summary

Strategies targeting the reduction of short-lived climate pollutants—methane, hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon soot, and tropospheric ozone—can avoid four times more warming at 2050 than targeting CO2 alone. Climate models usually pool emissions for short- and long-lived pollutants into a single currency of CO2 equivalents using a “single-basket” approach, this can lead to ambiguity about near-term warming impacts and the extent of overshoot. Using probabilistic models, this project aims to show that using a “two-basket” approach with separate targets for short-lived and long-lived pollutants avoids up to seven times more warming in 2050 than when pooling into CO2 equivalents. Through this project, IGSD helped develop a metric for short-lived methane that is practical for tracking national and sectoral progress toward meeting a specified near-term climate goal.

Team

Gabrielle Dreyfus is the Chief Scientist at the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, where she conducts research and advances policies to slow global warming through strategies to control short-lived climate pollutants. She is an adjunct lecturer at Georgetown University. Dreyfus is a member of the Climate & Clean Air Coalition’s Scientific Advisory Panel, the Montreal Protocol’s Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, and chair of the U.S. National Academies’ Committee on Atmospheric Methane Removal. Prior to IGSD, Dreyfus served as the Deputy Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of International Climate and Clean Energy. She also developed expertise in applying science to inform climate and energy policy in the U.S. Senate, National Oceanic, and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Department of Energy, through a series of fellowships. Dreyfus received a doctorate in Geosciences from Princeton University and Sorbonne Université.

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